The True Cost of Conflict: Aviation, Energy Security, and the Environmental Imperative.
Executive Summary
This white paper sets out to highlight how the ripples of conflict can be utilised as a catalyst and an opportunity for the aviation industry to pivot from its conventional consumption of Jet A-1 fuel, and move towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly alternative. The conflict in the Gulf region during March 2026 has triggered significant disruption across global energy markets. While a lot of attention has been placed on rising oil prices, supply chain instability, and geopolitical risk, the environmental cost of this conflict remains under-acknowledged.
This paper examines:
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The economic cost of the conflict
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The environmental consequences, particularly in the aviation sector
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The role of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and Low Aromatic Jet Fuel (LAJF)
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The strategic opportunity to accelerate transition within the aviation sector
The current conflict-driven disruption should act as an opportunity for structural change in aviation fuel strategy. The Economic Cost of the Gulf Conflict has borne immediate and escalating financial consequences to consumers and businesses around the world.
The early-stage estimates suggest that:
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$10–20+ billion in direct military expenditure within weeks
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Significant increases in global oil prices from between 10–20% or even higher
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LPG price surges of up to 50%
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Sharp increases in shipping and insurance costs
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Increase in the price of consumers weekly grocery shopping
Some of the indirect costs compound rapidly with:
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Supply chain inefficiencies
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Inflationary pressure on global economies
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Increased cost of aviation fuel and logistics
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Stock market turbulence
However, these figures only capture the visible, short-term impacts. They don’t account for the environmental degradation, which carries long-term economic consequences through climate change, regulatory pressure, and the cost to societies around the globe.
The Environmental Cost of Conflict
War is inherently carbon-intensive, with environmental impacts from:
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The attacking and burning of oil infrastructure and emissions from damaged facilities
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An Increase in military fuel consumption
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Disruption to supply chains leading to inefficient transport routes
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A general reduction in regulatory oversight during conflicts
In aviation specifically, conflict introduces several inefficiencies. Airspace restrictions impact flights due to rerouting them to avoid conflict zones and thus often adding:
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30 to 90 minutes to flight times
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Increased fuel consumption
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Which in turn means higher CO₂ emissions per journey
This fuel inefficiency means that airlines are forced to:
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Carry additional contingency fuel
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Operate less efficient routing patterns
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Adjust fleet utilisation, operating sub-optimally
Along with supply chain disruption, Jet A-1 availability becomes less predictable, thus forcing:
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Alternative sourcing
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Increased transportation distances
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Higher lifecycle emissions
The impact is clear, conflict amplifies aviation industries emissions at precisely the time when global reductions are necessary and targets are tightening.
Aviation’s Strategic Position in emissions reduction represents a unique opportunity within the energy transition.
Unlike other sectors, where infrastructure change can take decades, aviation has drop-in fuel solutions available today.
These include:
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Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)
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Low Aromatic Jet Fuel (LAJF)
Both can be integrated into existing aircraft and infrastructure without major modification.
This makes aviation one of the main sectors for which we can gain an almost immediate impact on the reduction of CO2 emissions within the broader energy system.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) / Low Aromatic Jet Fuel (LAJF): How to implement a scalable solution.
What is SAF?
SAF is produced from renewable or waste-based feedstocks, including:
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Used cooking oil
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Agricultural residues
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Municipal waste
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Synthetic processes (e-fuels)
Some of the environmental benefits of SAF:
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Up to 70–80% reduction in lifecycle CO₂ emissions
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Lower sulphur content
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Reduced particulate emissions
Some of the operational advantages of SAF?
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Fully compatible with existing aircraft
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No need for new engine technology
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Can be blended with conventional Jet A-1
Current challenges to overcome:
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Higher cost (typically 2–4x that of Jet A-1)
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Limited production capacity
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Supply chain immaturity
However, scale and investment are improving rapidly.
A not so frequently discussed option is that of Low Aromatic Jet Fuel (LAJF) which could be an overlooked opportunity. While SAF attracts most attention, LAJF offers IMMEDIATE benefits:
Key Advantages of LAJF
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Reduced aromatic content improves combustion efficiency
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Lower soot and particulate emissions
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Potential for reduced contrail formation
Contrails are increasingly recognised as a significant contributor to aviation’s climate impact. Reducing them can have a disproportionately positive environmental effect.
From a strategic perspective LAJF can act as:
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A transitional fuel
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A complementary solution alongside SAF
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A near-term improvement while SAF scales
Economic Case for Transition
At first glance, SAF and LAJF appear more expensive. However, this perspective is incomplete.
Direct Economic Considerations
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Higher upfront fuel costs
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Infrastructure investment requirements
Indirect Economic Benefits
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Reduced exposure to volatile oil markets
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Lower carbon tax liabilities (as regulations tighten)
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Improved ESG positioning and investor appeal
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Long-term operational stability
Risk Mitigation
In a world where geopolitical disruptions are increasing, reliance on conventional fossil-based Jet A-1 introduces:
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Supply concentration risk
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Price volatility
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Strategic vulnerability
Diversification into alternative fuels is not just environmental it is commercially prudent.
The Role of Policy and Industry Collaboration
The transition to SAF and LAJF will not occur in isolation. It will require a coordinated effort across:
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Governments – with the drafting of policies, incentives and subsidies
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Airlines will need to invest in long-term offtake agreements
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Producers will be required to make investment in refining capacity
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And Intermediaries will need to focus on facilitating suitable supply chains
Encouragingly, momentum is building:
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SAF mandates in Europe
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Investment in US and Asian production capacity
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Increased corporate commitment to emissions reduction
Conflict as a Catalyst for Change
Historically, energy transitions accelerate during periods of disruption and the current Gulf conflict is no different and highlights:
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The fragility of traditional supply chains
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The environmental cost of inefficiency
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The strategic importance of diversification
For the aviation sector, this is a defining moment. The tools for change already exist. What we require now is commercial commitment, strategic alignment and long term thinking.
Conclusion: From Reaction to Strategy
The Gulf conflict is a stark reminder that energy markets are not just economic systems they are geopolitical and environmental systems.
While the immediate focus remains on price and supply, the long-term impact will be shaped by how industries respond.
Aviation has a clear pathway forward:
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Adopt SAF at scale
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Integrate Low Aromatic fuels
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Improve operational efficiency
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Reduce reliance on volatile supply regions
This is not simply about sustainability. It is about energy resilience, competitiveness, and future-proofing an industry that sits at the heart of the global economy and to standout as a beacon working towards COP26 emissions goals, to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, while aiming for net-zero global emissions by 2050.
To wrap up…..
The cost of conflict is not measured solely in dollars or barrels. It is measured in long-term environmental impact and missed opportunities for change. The aviation sector has the capability to respond quickly and meaningfully.
The question is no longer if the transition will happen but when will it happen.